Averting future war on the Nile

Shinn, now an adjunct professor in the Elliot School of International Affairs at George Washington University, knows the area well. During his 37-year career in the U.S. Foreign Service, he served in seven of the 10 "riparian countries" that make up the vast basin drained by the 4,145-mile Nile River. Shinn was ambassador to two African nations, Ethiopia and Burkino Faso.

The potential for future violence arises from a combination of geography and water scarcity in an arid region, which is larger in area than India and contains a growing population of 200 million people.

But Shinn also thinks the most serious consequences are preventable, given enough attention, which is why he writes and talks on a subject and a continent that seems to take a low priority on the world's to-do list.

His basic hypothesis is that risk factors for armed conflict increase in a region when a nation that is downstream from a scarce natural resource is larger and stronger than its upstream neighbors.

The strong state in this case is Egypt, where 95 percent of the population lives in the Nile Valley. In a land that almost never rains, Egyptians have enjoyed the bulk of the Nile's water for millennia.

"Egypt may be more dependent than any country in the world on water from outside its borders," Shinn said.

In the last century, Egypt made agreements with Sudan on how the water should be divvied up, but those agreements left out the increased human densities and agricultural developments throughout the region, particularly in Ethiopia.

n 2003, Ethiopia, the source of much of the Nile waters, had surpassed Egypt in population with 69 million compared to 68 million; but with a fraction of Egypt's annual per capita income - $90 vs. Egypt's $1,390.

Both Egypt and Sudan have huge new projects in the works that pose problems for upstream countries, especially Ethiopia, Shinn said.

Uganda is another major player, and Barundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eritrea, Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania all share the upstream waters of the Nile.

Add the historical tensions and political controversies of the countries of the region to unknown factors related to water scarcity, and premonitions of a powder keg begin to form.

New Mexicans can relate locally to the emotionally volatile issues that surround water claims on a global scale - defining equitable shares, defending historic needs, establishing rights and balancing shaky understandings on the vulnerable foundation of mutual harm.

There are positive international efforts at work, Shinn emphasized, including the Nile Basin Initiative (www.nilebasin.org), a regional partnership supported by the Nile Basin countries and international donors.

Its vision is "To achieve sustainable socioeconomic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from the common Nile Basin water resources."

On the other hand, Shinn said, "Nothing is going on with the U.S. government with this issue, because it is so overwhelmed with other issues since 9/11, but even before 9/11, there was nothing going on."

LANL, he suggested, might find a way to lend a hand. Technical assistance, environmental and climate modeling on short and longterm bases could provide valuable answers for decision-makers.

How much better would it be to store water in the cooler highlands of Ethiopia, for example, where only 3 percent is lost to evaporation as opposed to 12 percent on the desert floor of Egypt?

The larger questions is about the "water war" that can clearly be seen approaching like a tidal wave, symbolic of an approaching era of resource scarcity in many parts of the world, and can anything be done it.