The National Population Policy in Focus

In Ethiopia, we are now marking the 10th anniversary of the launching of the country's first-ever population policy, which also saw the establishment of the National Office of Population, signifying the government's commitment to addressing problems associated with population through the implementation of that policy. 

To highlight the anniversary, a series of activities have been organized including a high level panel discussion on June 17, 2003 aimed at addressing five areas of development concerns, as they are impacted upon by demographic factors.  That panel discussion is being preceded by various media events like interview with people involved in population activities and feature articles and commentaries on population and development related issues.  <> This web-page is therefore dedicated to such articles and commentaries on those issues, which we believe will go a long way in making constructive contributions to the speedy realization of the objectives of the National population policy. 

By :  Sahlu Haile

There are two major reasons this year why we should be thinking about the rapid and unsustainable growth of our population:  this is the tenth year since the government adopted the National Population Policy and, secondly, we are facing the worst drought and famine in our history.  There is a correlation between the two.

The Ethiopian population was estimated at 67 million in 2002 increasing by approximately 1.8 million a year. With an annual growth rate of almost 3%, it is safe to assume that we will be around 70 million by mid next year. This in and by itself is neither positive nor a matter of concern.When population growth occurs in an environment of rapid economic development and major technological advance, it actually contributes to the national development effort. Unfortunately this is not the case in Ethiopia and that should be cause for concern. 

We were 24 million in 1960.We are now almost 70 million, a three fold increase in 40 years. At the current growth rate, we will reach the 100 million bar in the next 12 years. Even if we take drastic measures to slow down the rate of growth, the population will continue to grow for the foreseeable feature. This is because of the large young population, almost 40 million, a majority of which is entering in its reproductive life as we speak.

There is no comparative growth in our economic and/or social indicators. The performance of the agricultural sector, which employs the vast majority of the population, is lower today than it was 20 years ago. This is in spite of a significant investment in the agricultural sector by the government and a repeatedly announced policy that links the development of the country to the performance of the agricultural sector. 

As a result, our country depends on external aid for its basic needs (food, education and health). A country that can not feed its people can hardly claim independence or sovereignty from its donors. Since this is happening as a result of asymmetry between the population growth and the production capacity of the country, the population issue becomes a question of national security. 

The rapid population growth has also adverse impact in the country’s health and education systems. According to the 2000 DHS, every Ethiopian woman will have an average of 5.9 children during her reproductive life. The number is significantly higher in the rural areas than in urban centers. Early child bearing, short birth intervals and too many children are considered health risks in and by themselves. In Ethiopia there are aggravating factors. The national health coverage (i.e. the percentage of people that can access a health facility within a ten kilometer radius of their residence) is estimated at 48% in 1998. The ratio of health professionals to the population is extremely low even by African standards, vector-borne diseases which are relatively easy to control are affecting over a tenth of the population and almost half of the children under five years of age are mal nourished and underweight. And the HIV/AIDS pandemic is devastating the most productive sector of the society.

Maternal and child mortality, which are closely related to reproductive health, in Ethiopia are among the highest in the world. According to the National Office of Population, maternal mortality is 871 per 100,000 women of reproductive age and under five mortality is 166 per thousand. Children below five account for 46% of total death in the country. It is said that, in Ethiopia, one out of 11 women are likely to die from pregnancy related complications. The comparative figure for Europe and the United States is one out of five thousand. A recent assessment of maternal health around the world by Save the Children puts Ethiopia among the three worst countries in the world for mothers to be in. And yet access to basic reproductive health services especially family planning can decrease maternal mortality by as much as 40%. 

Malnutrition of children is a chronic problem: over half of children under 5 years of age are stunted and over 47% of children are underweight. The calorie intake of the population is very low even when compared to the less developed countries: the average daily calorie intake in Ethiopia is around 1600 per person per day. This is far below the minimum recommended intake of 2100 calories.

We are not faring better in the education sector. According to the 2000 DHS, a little more than a third of school-aged children have access to primary education. The rate for girls is only 17%. High school attendance is limited to less than 12% of the age-specific group while higher education is limited to less than 2%. Because of the very high student to teacher ratio, lack of adequate educational materials and infrastructure, the quality of education in most of the country is very poor. And yet, at the current rate of population growth, the number of school age children (7 to 12) which was under 9 million in 1990 will grow to 22 million in 2020. This means, investment in the education sector will have to increase three fold in order to maintain the current dismal level of enrolment by the year 2020. 

The population pressure is also a major cause of environmental degradation especially in the high lands of the country where the majority of the population lives.

According to a recent report, the forest area of the country is only 2.5% and will be totally depleted in less than 20 years unless drastic measures are taken to restore the situation. Deforestation takes place at the alarming rate of over 75,000 hectares per year while soil erosion takes place at the rate of 2 million tons annually. Due to prolonged cultivation, low technology and lack of appropriate input to improve the quality of soil, the country’s agricultural and pastoral land is loosing its usefulness at an alarming rate. Indications are that over 4% of the country’s arable land has completely lost its ability to produce food while over 50% has been seriously eroded. 

The immediate contributing factors to this situation include the total dependence of the population on forest wood for construction and fuel, the over cultivation and over grazing of land, the physical location of most of the arable land (most of the arable land in the north and north west is situated on a slop of almost 30%) and the internal migration from the environmentally degraded highlands to the more favorable low lands and the resultant destruction of forest land to prepare for the new arrivals. Internal migration has become a coping mechanism for environmental degradation. In fact this is being supported by the government since it has started resettling people from agriculturally poor areas to more fertile lands. This will definitely contribute to address the immediate problem of drought and famine. In the long run, however, it will only serve to distribute the problem geographically. For the population of the more fertile lands of the South and South West is also growing at an alarming rate. It will not be long before we see shortage of arable land, social tension and return to the same old problems in these areas. 

So, what is to be done. The developmental and environmental challenges of the country are multi-faceted. They require multi-sectoral approaches. The over arching cause of the problem is however the rapid growth of the population. While addressing the population issue may not solve all our problems, it is difficult to envisage any meaningful development in the country at the current level of population growth. 

< There are many ways of reducing the rapid population pressure. Some are long term and require major investment in terms of human, material and technology. Others are within our immediate reach. Measure that can address the population problem include educating the young female population, reducing harmful traditional practices especially early marriage and family pressure for early child bearing and expanding family planning services. 

There is no doubt that girls education will contribute greatly to reducing the rate of population growth. In fact girls’ education is probably the single most important factor that may alter the developmental paradigm of the country. Educated women usually marry late, are economically active and are able to make independent reproductive health decisions. For example, the contraceptive utilization among illiterate women in Ethiopia is under 5% while 16% of women with some primary education and 45% of women with secondary education use family planning methods. Educating young girls will also address the major gender gap that exists in most communities of the country. Such gender gaps include fair distribution of labor, access to resources, empowerment within the family and the society etc…However with the current rate of development in the educational sector, it is unlikely that we will have a critical mass of educated women before the population reaches an alarming level.

Some harmful traditional practices favor early marriage of girls and immediate child bearing after the marriage. Delaying girls marriage by a few years will have significant impact in the rate of growth of the population. Delaying the marriage age of girls will also have major role in improving maternal and child health in the country. It has been documented that one of the major causes of maternal mortality and morbidity is early child bearing before the body of the girl is properly developed. However, the struggle to get rid of these practices is long and difficult. The population situation can not be ignored until these problems are resolved. 

The population problem can also be tackled by making family planning information and services widely available.. 

Today, less than eight percent of women in the reproductive age use modern family planning methods. Had the services been made available over 45% of them would like to use them either for the purpose of spacing or limiting their child bearing. Some recent experiences of non governmental organizations show that significant progress can be achieved if family planning services are offered in a manner that is culturally and socially appropriate. In South Wollo, Jimma and parts of the Southern Region where non governmental organizations have been active in community based services, family planning use has significantly increased and there are signs of fertility decline. However these are few and far between. In most part of the country, services are unavailable or inaccessible to the majority of the population.

Ethiopia has a population policy that is ten years old this year. The policy is very progressive and identifies the major obstacles to the country’s development effort. It also proposes appropriate measures intended at addressing these obstacles. The objectives of the policy include increasing contraceptive usage to 44% (from 4% at the time the policy was developed) and reducing fertility to 4 children per woman (from 7.7 children per woman) Had efforts been made to implement the policy, there is no doubt that we would have made significant progress in reducing the rate of growth of the population. But it seems implementation is a major problem. 

This is because although we do have explicit population policy, the national reproductive health and related programs seem to be managed by the actions (or lack of it) of government officials that are contrary to the policy. A recent evaluation of the health sector development program rightly identifies lack of commitment by government officials as being the major impediment for the proper implementation of the national reproductive health program. And no population program can succeed without a strong and proactive support from national governments. 

Our leaders should support the expansion of family planning because, in addition to addressing the population growth problem, it contributes to the national development in many ways. The millennium development goal that has been adopted by the government identifies several targets to be achieved by the year 2015. These include: eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, achieving universal primary education, promoting gender equality, reducing child mortality, improving maternal health, combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases and ensuring environmental sustainability. There is no mention of expanding family planning or reproductive health services. However, expansion of family planning services will contribute greatly to the achievement of every one of the goals mentioned above. 

And there is one important reason for the expansion of family planning services: it is the basic right of each man and woman to decide the number and spacing of his/her child birth. It is ironic that those who oppose family planning (population) programs are those who are the well to do of the society, who earn by far higher wages than the national average and who have access to health and education facilities. And yet most of them choose to have two or three children. Shouldn’t the rest of the population have the opportunity to have the same choice?

2003 Walta Information Center