Staggering rise’ in world conflicts

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen

COMMENTATORS globally are speculating about whether a third world war is imminent, given a staggering rise in conflict around the world in the past month.

Israel, supported by the US, is confronting Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and Syria. This at a time when tensions are already high as Tehran is being reported to the United Nations (UN) Security Council over its nuclear programme.

Nuclear-armed North Korea has shown its defiance of the US by its attempted test of long-range missiles.

The International Crisis Group, a Washington- and Brussels-based research and lobbying group which tries to prevent wars, says in its monthly report that “July 2006 was the grimmest month for conflict prevention in three years”.

In the three years it has monitored crises in its monthly report, CrisisWatch — available at www.crisisgroup.org — says it “has not recorded such severe deteriorations in so many conflict situations as in the past month”.

The only real comfort is that none of the ongoing conflicts seems likely to spark a wider war because they remain, on the whole, regional and have not sparked anything wider so far.

The Crisis Group lists 70 situations which are in conflict or could potentially result in conflict. Of these, it says, 12 have deteriorated — in Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, India, Iraq, Israel-occupied territories, Kashmir, Lebanon, North Korea, Somalia, Sri Lanka and Sudan. It sees improvement in only four situations — Angola, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Timor Leste.

In the remainder — which range from Afghanistan and Nagorno-Karabakh to Zimbabwe — it says the situation is unchanged.

Iraq is on the list of deteriorating situations, but is no longer a “conflict-risk alert” country for the group. Countries in this group are Israel and the occupied territories, Lebanon, Somalia, and Sri Lanka.

Iraq — there is an ongoing deterioration in Iraq as the US military estimated a 40% increase in major attacks in Baghdad in July over the previous month. Sectarian violence has surged with about 100 civilians killed a day last month.

‖Lebanon: “There is a real risk of further escalation and destabilisation from the conflict,” the group says. Israel’s decision to widen the ground offensive and Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, threatening to move attacks further south bears a serious risk of escalation, the report says.

Already tense nuclear negotiations between Iran and the major powers have been further complicated by the conflict in Lebanon.

‖Somalia: “The country is on the brink of civil war.” The conflict could spread to Ethiopia and Eritrea — which have an unresolved border dispute.

Ethiopian troops entered Somailia to support the transitional government after the UIC routed the US backed anti-terrorism alliance.

Although denied by the Eritrean government, the Union of Islamic Courts, which rules much of Mogadishu, says it does have support from Ethiopia’s rival, Eritrea.

With Ethiopian troops in the country the Union of Islamic Courts has refused to talk about power sharing.

‖Sri Lanka: A major risk of escalation in the conflict between government forces and the Tamil Tigers after last month’s clashes and extra-judicial killings.

Diplomatic efforts were renewed, but have failed to calm the situation, the group says in its latest report.

‖Sudan: Implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement signed in May is at a standstill, partly because of infighting among rebel groups. The Sudanese military is reported to be supporting attacks by the Minnawi faction of the Sudanese Liberation Army.

‖North Korea: Tensions have risen dramatically on the Korea peninsula after the testing of seven missiles. Pyongyang has remained defiant despite a UN Security Council resolution to prevent transfer of missile or weapons of mass destruction technology and has threatened a “physical response”.

‖India: The situation is seen to have deteriorated markedly. The co-ordinated bombings on seven Mumbai commuter trains last month killed more than 400 people and have raised tensions with Pakistan. No major jihadi groups have claimed responsibility.

‖Côte d’Ivoire: This has also deteriorated, with the violent opposition to voter registration by pro-government militias making postponement of an October poll increasingly likely.

‖Democratic Republic of Congo: The generally peaceful elections at the weekend, the first in 40 years, are the main reason for a more upbeat assessment of the country’s future. But concerns remain as electoral challenges from candidates could lead to violent mass protests and attacks by rebel groups. Ituri province has seen intense fighting between militia and the army in recent weeks and rebels have taken over the town of Tchei from UN forces and the army.

There are also warnings on conflict situations that remain unchanged.

‖Nigeria: While the situation is viewed as unchanged, unrest continued in the Niger Delta with further kidnappings of oil workers and attacks on pipelines. There were also attacks on police stations in Anambra state. The crisis group warned in a recent report that Nigeria, although a major oil producer and African power, was very fragile.

“If internal fissures, poverty and economic disparities are left unchecked, violence could escalate and severely affect regional security.” Next year’s presidential election could provide an opportunity for political consolidation.

‖Zimbabwe: The situation remains unchanged with little progress in resolving the crisis, and the visit by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan cancelled.

The group says former Tanzanian president Benjamin Mkapa is to visit the country as a Southern African Development Community envoy.

There are signs of increasing co-operation between opposition Movement for Democratic Change factions led by Arthur Mutambara and Morgan Tsvangirai.

Go to Source of article