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The Democratic Process in Ethiopia -LESSONS YET TO BE LEARNED - I,II, III, IV and conclusion

To anyone observing recent elections in Ethiopia, in spite of all the mess that ensued, it is clear a true democratic process is in place, with independent multi-parties operating, and up to 90% of the voting public taking part in the process. All have learned great lessons and a big step has been taken forward.

The government has made many mistakes, so have the political parties in the opposition. The question now is, can we learn from our mistakes and move forward. It is the hope of this writer that the process in motion will continue, that the government and all well-prepared political parties will face each other in a better-structured struggle five years from now, and the democratic process strengthened.

Hind site is 20/20, but that is precisely why we need to study these past mistakes in order to learn from them, so that we do not repeat these, but improve the process for the next round. Therefore;

Lesson One: The government should have set requirements of standard and category very early, to disqualify and eliminate some undesirable elements that fomented trouble, declaring from the very start that they would ‘take power by any means necessary’. Those who voice such slogans have not embraced democracy, so why should they be allowed to participate in a democratic process? Democracy is only for those who believe in it. Those who want to abrogate the democratic process should be barred from it.

Furthermore, former members of that hated Derg Regime have no business participating in the present political process. In USA any criminal with a felony in his/her record loses all rights to vote or participate in any political activity. Similar rigorous requirements should be put in place for the future.

Lesson Two: Political parties should focus on policy mistakes of the government and hammer their counterpoints, showing how they would come up with better policies. Negative campaigns are not productive. TV and Radio platform should not be used for throwing insults. A political debate is not about who can insult whom the worst. It is about who can best serve the public by coming up with creative solutions to policy problems on hand. The nation has many pressing problems waiting for solutions.

Lesson Three: Political parties that participated in the elections cannot turn around several days or weeks after the election and declare they have no confidence in the Electoral Board. Had there been any such concerns, voice them at the fore front, well before any elections take place.

Once political parties sign up and become part of the process, they cannot make a u-turn and blame the process. They need to stay in the process, suggest and help to correct it. Had such concerns been voiced before the elections and negotiations started, it is possible to expect some accommodations made by the government, otherwise, the political parties could have boycotted the elections altogether. By their very act of participation, however, the opposition implicitly accepted to abide by all the rulings and decisions of the Electoral Board, and there can be no going back.

Lesson Four: Any irregularities observed during the elections should be duly logged and reported within a given time period, a set deadline after which no more complaints are accepted. The office would then start to look into the allegations and take corrective measures.

What was observed, however, was more like a ripple effect that started with a drop here, a drop there, and soon turned into a storm. Starting with one and two irregularities, it soon went on to allegations of many more irregularities, and escalated into a total rejection of all results, claiming the process was totally rigged. The same political party leaders that were jubilant a day or two after the results were first announced, and said: “We won far more than what we thought we would…” were turning around to say the votes were rigged, and would not accept any of the results altogether.

Lesson Five: However much one might disagree with the policies of EPRDF, dislike or hate the person of the Prime Minister, Ato Meles Zenawi, one need respect the Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Foul mouthing the government and/or the PM will accomplish nothing. Diplomatic language often goes a lot further than a crude utterance. Instead of stating: “We will unseat the government by civil disobedience and public unrest…,” (which can be interpreted as an incitement to riot, an uprising, and a treason,) or using similarly inflammatory language, a more suave politician would carefully chose his words and say, “We have no desire or intention to overthrow the government. All we want is for the results of the election to be verified and the wishes of the Ethiopian people to be respected, and towards that end, we are going to call the public to join us in a peaceful demonstration…” etc. Remember, freedom of speech does not cover or sanction the crying of “fire!” in a crowded place. Even though a peaceful demonstration is the right of the people guaranteed by the Constitution, fomenting public unrest, and calling for riots is illegal.

Remember too, any government is a real Leviathan, a monster with horns, teeth, and claws. It has the power and even the legitimacy to gore, bite, slash, and kill. One should be extremely cautious in dealing with the government. What does one lose by using polite language and soft expressions? In this case, it was unwise, indeed foolish, to voice the type of excessive language used. Why shooting oneself on the foot?

Lesson Six: No matter how provocative the opposition leadership, however destructive the mobs, the responses by the government were harsh, far too harsh. This is not the first time, and not the second, but the third time that street riots broke out in Addis in the last five years. Why do thirty, forty, or more people have to die each time? Well in advance, the opposition had fully disclosed and publicized its intentions as to what steps it was going to take. Why did the government not have the foresight and due diligence to allocate all necessary budgets, and have a fully capable and trained police force ready to deal with the situation in the most appropriate manner? Why was it necessary for so many lives to be sacrificed?

The police should have used various methods and techniques, from tear gas, pepper spray, high velocity water hose, to rubber bullets. Most of the dead and wounded, in all likelihood, were unemployed youth and street urchins and hooligans, and not political operatives, or party members of the opposition. It is sad and unconscionable to fire live bullets into the crowds. If the police had used some combinations of the methods enumerated above, it might have been possible to reduce the death toll to one or two, or even five, instead of forty or more. That is not to say the death of even one person is acceptable, but it would have made a great difference and ameliorated the situation somewhat. Property destroyed may be rebuilt, but lives lost cannot be brought back. Human life is sacred, and should never be cut short like that.

In this regard, the government should take full responsibility for its failure. The Prime Minister should have immediately fired the Minister of Internal Security and/or the Chief of Police, even better – both. That could help begin the healing process. Furthermore, at its very best, riot control is only a band-aid, and not a solution for these problems. Youth unemployment will not go away unless the government starts aggressive job creation program, and political problems may not go away by arresting the political leaders.

Lesson Seven: Self Dependence! Never expect those of us in Diaspora, nor even European or other foreign powers, to bring about democracy to Ethiopia. It is an internal problem and needs an internal solution. There are many examples we can learn from, where foreign powers meddled in the internal affairs of other countries, trying to impose their own brand of democracy. Such places have only ended up as hot beds of trouble and worse unrest than they were before. Take the former Yugoslavia (smashed and broken up today into half a dozen bits and pieces: Bosnia, Slovenia, Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro …etc.) and the new one currently under construction by the US, – Iraq. Is that what we wish for our country? God forbid!

The truth of this crucial matter is finally beginning to dawn in the minds of some leaders in the opposition as one of them (Ato Hailu Shawl) said from prison recently, “…The international community takes serious action when they have problems, not when people (from Third World countries) have problems. People have died here. Their response is not proportional to what is happening here. They only pay lip service," (1)

Actually, it is not lip service. Watch their lips, and you will see that they really mean it. The US clearly states, “Our policy is based on our national interest...” How much clearer can it get? If an Ethiopian should kill another Ethiopian in the streets of Addis, is that the interest of Mr. Tony Blair or President Bush? What would be a “proportional response” for Bush or Blair? Invade the country? They already cut aid down.

It took more than two years for the World Community to intervene in Yugoslavia, and even then only after much documentation of mass graves, flagrant Human Rights abuses, and many concentration camps that reminded one of Auschwitz. Today, the World Community is struggling to intervene in Sudan, the Darfur, due to the over two million people that have suffered rape, murder, and displacement, but has not yet fully got a handle on the horns of that bull. Is it not rather naïve to expect any intervention in Ethiopia?

Lesson Eight: Self Respect. Opposition Leaders need to wake up and smell the coffee. Solution can only come from inside by Ethiopians. We need to stop looking for “serious action” from foreign powers. Nobody is going come to our rescue. Just because I know how to drive, does not mean my son will also automatically drive a car. He will have to make his own mistakes, crash a few times, just as I did, before he can be a good driver. Every country goes through the process of democracy in its own way. It may be possible to copy democracy, translate is verbatim from the books abroad and import it, but it will never really fit our mould until a real one is minted, homegrown, and made to fit the characters of our country and of our people. Neither Europe, nor America can make Ethiopia a democracy, only her own children.

Systematically therefore, we need to start respecting each other as fellow citizens of Ethiopia and learn democracy by the very steps taking place today. Mistakes by the opposition, mistakes by rioting youth, mistakes by the police force, and mistakes by the government, all are essential parts of the learning process. If this government is ultimately replaced by peaceful means, rather than by riots and an uprising, or by a military coup, we will have reached an important and historic milestone in the journey. Ethiopia will have pulled itself out of the morass of the Dark Ages of Principalities and into a New Age of Democracy. If we can keep our eyes on that prize, the present skirmishes, however insurmountable they appear toady; will soon take their proper size. We need to have a historic perspective, prevail, and stay the course. There is no overnight democracy. It is a long journey, and all Ethiopians need to brace up for the long road ahead.

Lesson Nine: Ethnic Politics. Ethiopia would gain nothing from fomenting ethnic politics and unrest, except the breaking up and splintering of the nation. Eritrea may have gained its independence, but has benefited nothing. It has only become poorer. The opposition accuses the government of ethnically divisive policies in setting up Regional Governments and Federalism, and that they would like to replace it by a strong Central Government.

To the opposition Federalism is a cover for “divide and rule”. Is that the truth? However true that may be, many minority ethnic groups are happy with Federalism. For the first time ever, minority groups have the right to use their own language and to run their own affairs in their own Regional Government, and within their own administrative areas. Furthermore, has the government really divided all the regions along ethnic lines? Some regions (case in point, Southern Peoples) have a good mix of various ethnic groups under one umbrella. Thus, the accusation of ethnic politics and ‘divide and rule’ may not even hold water in all cases.

Having accused the government of ethnic politics, however, the opposition took ethnic politics to the worst possible phase by openly dividing people into ethnic groups. Ethnic politics is bad, and if the government is doing it, we should all condemn the government. Why must opposition groups then make the very same mistake? For the opposition to instruct their followers to target “EPRDF supporters” for boycotts and other attacks is ethnic politics at its ugliest. If they do not support or endorse these ethnic attacks, opposition leaders need to publicly, condemn and to distance themselves from all such ethnically divisive politics.

Opposition members accuse the government of using the term “Neftegna” to denigrate and demonize the Amhara ethnic group. If true, this indeed is sad and regrettable. Many a “Neftegna” in Menelik’s and in Haileselassie’s army was from Tigray as well as from Oromo, and various other nationalities. If this word becomes a derogatory term, then let it be understood by everyone that it does not apply to Amharas alone, but to Tigrians, to Oromo, and to many other nationalities. So, who is going insulting whom by such characterization? Such name-callings must stop, as these would not take us any closer to democracy.

The government needs to lead the nation by good examples and by the use of language and terminologies conducive for peace and harmony. But if, and when the government makes mistakes and is wrong, should the opposition too, after indicating this is wrong, proceed to make the very same or even worse mistake in retaliation? Two wrongs do not make it right, except to aggravate the situation and add to the problem. The opposition should not get into the same pitfall of ethnic politics, of which they accuse the government.

Lesson Ten: Tit-for-Tat Politics. This is what put the kibosh on the entire peaceful and democratic process. Soon after the elections, the government announced a ban on all demonstrations for a short period, “…until all results from various distant regions could come in, counted and tallied…” What was the rush? Why was it necessary to hurry up and go on demonstrations just to oppose the ban and break the law? Opposition leaders can now look back and see if they gained anything by that move. What would they have lost if they had waited a month or two? When the opposition group defied the government by going on demonstrations, the government followed suite. First, it gave a green light for the capital of Oromia to come into Addis, it then announced tax reductions for Addis, and finally raised the minimum number of parliament members to bring an issue into the daily agenda for discussion to 51%. This last one clearly, is overkill and draconian.

Democracy, at its very minimum, means public participation. That means all the public and not only the supports of the government. If the public through its elected members cannot even bring its concerns and grievances to the floor of the house, where then is the democracy? The government needs to look into this issue very carefully as this could prove far more serious than any steps taken thus far. This is the government telling the people: “…We know what is best for you, and we will not even listen to your concerns.” This is very wrong, and parliament must rescind it as quickly as possible. The government has the majority seats in parliament, and can block any decision it deems to be going against its grain. Why then does it need to muzzle up the opposition even from bringing issues to the floor? This is undemocratic.

Tit-for-tat belongs in chess and other recreational board games. Our proverb goes: “Ye fukikir bet sayzega yadral…” If all parties are truly concerned for the wellbeing of the people and the nation, then all need to rise up well above this kind of childish games. The opposition should not be sore losers by engaging in defiance of the government just for its own sake. They need to calculate their moves carefully and see what will be gained, and at what cost. They need to get up and prepare for the long struggle ahead. In addition, the government needs to be magnanimous in victory, and not play these types of dirty political tricks

Lesson Eleven: Have respect for the law. When George Bush won over Al Gore, various misconducts and serious irregularities had taken place in Florida, where Jeb Bush, his brother, was the State Governor, and the case ended up in the Supreme Court. Long before the judgment was handed down, everyone knew it was going to be unfair. Seven of the nine judges were right wing Republicans. Later, after several recounts they determined Al Gore had in fact, won the election by more than 21,000 popular votes. When they announced it, Al Gore never challenged the earlier Supreme Court ruling. Had he told his supporters to come out on strikes and mass demonstrations to overturn it and unseat George Bush, would it not have been crazy, to say the least? Is that not exactly what the opposition attempted to do in Ethiopia? Moreover, they did not even have the evidence Al Gore received of clearly wining the popular votes by 21,000 people. We all need to learn to accept decisions given by the appropriate legal body, and abide by it.

Lesson Twelve: However small, consolidate and capitalize on your achievements. Take in every step and keep on moving forward. When the opposition won almost all seats in Addis, why did they not use it as a stepping-stone and a building block for more future achievements? They wanted all or nothing, and ended up getting nothing. Now they can look back and see what a great mistake they made, and what a wonderful opportunity was lost. The proverb: “Yekotun awerd bla yebibitwan talech” says it all. Building the foundations of democracy is never an easy task. There will be times when we will go two steps forward and a step backward, as was seen in the weeks after the election, or worse, a step forward and two backwards. The most important thing is to stay focused on the goal ahead and follow the process doggedly.

The opposition would benefit from leaders skilled in negotiations, farsighted, and ready for a protracted struggle. After all, the leadership in office had to struggle for some seventeen years before they toppled the Derg Regime. One needs to have that type of patience in order to replace them in a peaceful way.

Lesson Thirteen: Know your power base, its weaknesses, and limitations. Political reality means speaking in a measured language that would equal ‘appropriate action’. Otherwise, you are bluffing. If one calls your bluff, there will be nothing with which to back up your words. The opposition had its main hopes set on support from European powers, the US government, and Ethiopians in Diaspora. They all did what they could, but it was not sufficient to unseat the government. That limitation proved the home base of the opposition was weak, and unable to unseat the government. What does this mean?

If Ethiopia was 85% industrialized, workers could refuse to work, freeze the economy, and bring down the government. Opposition leaders need to understand Ethiopia’s population is 85% agrarian based. Of the remaining 15% city dwellers, (all cities added!) the few taxi drivers, teachers and students, and some office workers, might make up to 2 – 3 % or at the very most say 5% of the population. If they strike and refuse to work, they would suffer and are the poorer for it, but will hardly affect the government or the national economy. They may be the most vocal and the loudest, but not the most decisive. Until proven otherwise, one assumes the silent majority (85 – 95%) chose to be on the side of the government.

Remember, in the 70s it was neither taxi drivers nor student demonstrators that unseated the Emperor. Demonstrations by students, taxi drivers and other city dwellers, at its very best, played only a catalyst role. Only the army had the power and the means to unseat him, and unseat him they did. That is the stubborn reality of power politics. Noise may be important, but noise alone does not translate into political power.

The Democratic Process in Ethiopia
LESSONS YET TO BE LEARNED - Conclusions

In conclusion:

Pointing at government policy mistakes and its failures alone will not suffice for any party to takeover. A self-respecting party needs to come up with a clear vision, valid alternative policies, and the ways and means of achieving superb goals for Ethiopia. As the former US President, Lyndon B. Johnson, said, “Any jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a Master Craftsman to build it…”

At times, the opposition appeared like an ah-hock committee than fully integrated political machinery. It had a common aim of defeating the government, but not much else. There were clear leadership gaps and failures on many fronts, which could not keep members in line. There seemed to be no focus on the long-term goal and protracted struggle, or a coherent strategy. Aside from insults and the poking of holes in the policies of EPRDF, it seemed to lack a well-articulated vision and a long-range plan for the nation.

Just because one has a Ph. D. in this or that subject does not necessarily mean that person automatically makes a better leader for a country. Political leadership is a complex set of skills acquired by getting involved in parties and organizations. Education helps, but primarily, it needs something special. It is like playing a musical instrument. One can become proficient and play a few good tunes, but to become a master musician, an artist; it requires something special – a talent!

As we said before, unguarded speech and confrontational approach, without something to back it up, does not work. It only produces negative results. Leadership in this case calls for a different approach. After all, however small they may appear to us, this government introduced these democratic processes. Transferring Political Power, figuratively speaking, is like taking meat from the mouth of a lion, or The Leviathan, – a monster. It takes a skilful lion tamer, with a soft and charming voice, and an endless capacity for patience. We need a charismatic leader with these qualities. Belligerence will not accomplish much.

Beyond belligerence, some even say the Derg Regime was better than this government. Clearly, that is absurd. Perhaps for the few former Derg members, now in the opposition, this could indeed be true. It might well have been better for them then, than now. As for a million and a half Ethiopian refugees that returned from many years of exile in the Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti, and the Somaliland, there can be no comparison. This is not to say the EPRDF government has not made many serious mistakes. It has, and some may even be unforgivable. However, to compare EPRDF to the Derg Regime is unconscionable.

Did we have any political parties campaigning during the Derg era? How many privately owned magazines and newspapers were there? Did anyone get airtime on National Radio and TV to speak against Mengistu? Where then is the comparison? These days, refugees are flocking from the Sudan and Eritrea into Ethiopia. How many Ethiopian refugees are there fleeing the country? Some blinded by politics cannot see the truth even if it hits them between the eyes, and so they continue to make these outrageous comparisons.

The lessons listed above may be ignored because many have become polarized. However, it is the hope of this writer that at least some will learn and prepare for the next round of struggle five years from now. If the process is to continue, it is paramount that the government should loosen or remove many of the hurdles and legal gridlocks it has erected. If the PM is truly genuine to usher democracy to Ethiopia, it cannot come with these gridlocks or with the vision of one person, or one party alone. The public need to be involved, the process needs to be well defined, the participants carefully screened, the dance well planned in detail and choreographed ahead of time, with nothing left to chance. Every eventuality must be considered and planned carefully, from the ceremony of power transfer to the last details of leading the PM to his place of permanent residence with full honor, a lifetime unit of personal security guards, and a generous stipend.

If the PM transfers power peacefully, it will be to his advantage, and to the benefit of the nation. He would be The Master Craftsman to have accomplished this heroic and historic feat and set precedence. He would turn into a living legend, a Statesman of Ethiopia and Africa. Generations to come may sing his praises. If he does not, however, he would be just another failed leader in the string of deceptive and failed leaders. It would prove he cared less about leaving a lasting legacy than wielding power. History, the ultimate judge, will neither forgive, nor forget the errors and blunders he has committed while in office. Furthermore, he will have security guards to watch over him, either in-house, as Haileselassie was watched over until his dying days or as Mengistu is now being watched over by guards, night and day in exile. History teaches us again, and again the lion or The Leviathan are, in one way or another, finally captured and caged – or worse yet, killed, unless they voluntarily relinquish the public office they hold and the power they wield.

This PM, however, has repeatedly stated his commitment to the democratic process, and one needs to give him the benefit of the doubt. Free speech introduced by this government is no mean achievement, thus the arrested journalists must be released, and pursue their trade with full press freedom. This author has great hopes for the future of Ethiopia and believes that this PM, in spite of the recent grave setbacks, may still keep his word, and establish democracy in Ethiopia. We may all live to see the end of an era – The Era of Principalities, – and the dawn of a New Age of power transition by peaceful and democratic means.

G. E. Gorfu