The Ethio-Eritrean war : what next?

By Alem G.
Jul 30, 2005, 00:23 PST

Introduction:

Dark clouds of war and destruction are still hovering in our horizon. This time, the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of the Ethiopian government and its leaders. This time, the Ethiopian government finds itself, on the wrong side of the law and history.

For Eritrea, this " no war, no peace" means an agonizing slow death. Already, the demographic implication of this war and its aftermath is devastating. For many young women, the hope of setting a family and having children is slowly fading. Seven years in the life of a young woman means the difference between marrying and having children and not having children, at all. And with each passing day, month and year, the biological clock is ticking and for most of them and for Eritrea, it may be too late.

A whole generation is at a point of extinction.

This is the ugly side of the war that is not being addressed. And unless this major disruption in the social process is reversed, there may be nothing left worth defending or dying.

War is, should not [be], an option:

Since independence, we have struggled to formulate a national strategy, one that reflects the constraints of our demography and natural resources. Often times, the failure to access our limitations has put the country in minor confrontations with Yemen and Djibouti, in an ongoing proxy war with the Sudan and most recently, in a devastating and senseless war with Ethiopia.

Going back to the genesis of the war, one is given multiple reasons that seem to change with the military fortunes of the country. Initially, we were told the war is all about Badme and the border and when the military tide turned in favor of Ethiopia, we were told the war was not about Badme, it was the survival of the nation. Now, we are back to circle one and we are being told, the war after all was about Badme.

Or is it about Badme?

And if so, what are our options? Are we prepared to declare war and reclaim our lost territories by force? Are we willing to pay another 19000 or more of our youngest and brightest? And what is the exit strategy? Are we hoping for the Ethiopians to accept their defeat and ask for dialog? We better think twice.

The initial objective of Eritrea would only be the beginning of another war. As the Prime Minister of Ethiopia had alluded so many times, we may not know where and when the war may end. Any illusions of the war stopping with Eritrea recovering the disputed areas is simply naive. Any hope of limited engagement is not going to work. This time around, it will be a fight to the end.

Dialog is the way out!

Even at this late hour, I encourage the Eritrean government to explore all peaceful avenues. The game of diplomacy should not be the domain of the Ethiopians only.

Incredible as it may seem, Eritrea has done handsomely in the diplomatic arena, compared to the disastrous outcome of the war. For us, didiplomacy should be our initial weapon of choice. Sadly, in our scheme of things, it has remained a very distant cousin to our military options.

We should engage the Ethiopian prime minister and see, what he is up to. The recent statements attributed to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, should be scrutinized and addressed properly. It maybe a gimmick, however, It could not have been meant to bolster his image or popularity within Ethiopia. Already the chauvinist elements within Ethiopia are demanding for his head on a platter.

The recent political development within Ethiopia and the resurgence of the many anti Eritrea elements is deeply worrying. Many of those, who had advocated for the reversal of Eritrea's independence, have already made their way into the political main stream. Before long, they may even be a majority and take the reigns of power.

I am fully aware, final means final. I am not asking the government to renegotiate Badme or any other decisions that has been deemed, final and binding. What I am saying is, while the Eritrean government is fixated with Badme, the focus of the opposition and the much weakened government of Meles Zenawi many change. I am worried about the changing political climate in Ethiopia. I am worried this may come to haunt us in the future. It could mean another lost opportunity. Remember the US-Rwanda peace initiative.

A call to all peace loving Eritreans and Ethiopians:

This is an appeal, to all decent people to raise up to the occasion and save our people from an impending disaster. It is a call to the many fine sons and daughters of both countries, to say "no" to another senseless war.

Year in and year out, the poor people of these two brotherly countries are being called to put their life on hold and offer their children to fight and die, for another senseless war.

The war was wrong yesterday, it is wrong today and most definitively, it will be wrong tomorrow.

It is disheartening to know some chauvinist elements, on both side of the border, calling for more bloodshed. To speak the truth, it has cooled down significantly, on the Eritrean side. PIA, despite his retoric, is not prepared to comit sucide. However, the call for war is alive and well, on the other side of the border. Numerous websites sporting the writing of some shoddy characters had been calling for war and more war. Some are questioning the legitimacy of Eritrea's independence, while others are calling for an all out war to snatch the port of Assab. Take the recent confessions of Ghebru Assrat and the numerous scribblings of Drs Araya, Tekola and et all...

After more than thirty years of struggle for independence and more than six years of bloodshed in the recent border war, the likes of these people would like to lecture us, on the merits of federation and confederation.

Sirs, we refuse to be entrapped in that nonsense again. We have learned the hard way and for our innocence or call it folly, we paid dearly. Eritrea is a reality and nobody's wishful thinking can change that fact. We want to stand on our own; however poor or demographically insignificant we may be, in the Geo-political scheme of the region.

How to face this challenge:

I have debated with myself, for some time now, as to how to challenge these individuals. Because, left on their own and concocting lies and half truths, these individuals are hell pent on implementing their mission of hate and destruction. All men of goodwill, Ethiopians and Eritreans alike, should challenge them and expose them.

I really hate to name names and respond to individuals. But I have to make an exception this time, as what is being said and written, contradicts the image these individuals are trying to dispense.

The subject of my current piece is Dr. Ghelawedos Araya.

Dr. Araya is an Ethiopian, born and raised in Asmara. In fact, up to the years leading to Haile Selassie University, most of us took him to be an Eritrean. It was only upon his going to Addis Ababa and joining the Ethiopian student movement that he started flaunting his new found identity.

In the late 60s and early 70, when being a "revolutionary" was fashionable, Ghelawdeos was often heard advocating for the right of the Eritrean people to secede.

That was then.

Now, Dr. Araya with his new found ultra nationalism is preaching for the dismantling of Eritrea; albeit, in a discreet manner.

I meet this guy in 1975 in the Sudan, on his way to America. Mind you, that was the time when Ethiopia's finest sons and daughters were dying on the hills of Assimba and Tigrai's finest were heading to Dedebit. Dr. Araya elected not to fight and die and headed to the west and unlike many Eritreans or Ethiopians, who had to make the long and arduous trek to the Sudan on their own, Dr. Araya was safely transported, first to Yemen and then to the Sudan, courtesy of the EPLF.

That being the brief history of Dr. Araya, now let me say something in regards to his latest project - which is a self appointed mediator and his five point piece plan.

1. The Ethiopian and Eritrean governments should initiate a dialogue not only to settle the border dispute but also to discuss the possible formation of a ten-person ad hoc committee (five from each) that would be in charge of facilitating round table negotiations among the Ethiopian and Eritrean officials and peoples.

This is a procedural matter and the two governments can set any mechanism to facilitate the peace. I don't see why Dr. Araya or any other individual for that matter should worry about this matter. Time will dictate the make up of any ad hoc committee and we will cross that line, if and when we reach it.

2. The two governments should agree on the old known borders till they exhaust the complexities of the Boundary Commission decision. There is no need of a third party here.

This is an absolute "no no" and a new ground for more blood shed. After more than six years of blood shed, Messrs Araya would like us to forget the nightmare of that absurd war and start all over again. Sir, unless you are in some kind of self induced euphoria, the pain and suffering of the last war has hit every Eritrean family and I am sure, many of our brothers and sisters in Ethiopia, too.

If you have any decency, you should lobby the Ethiopian government to live up to its responsibilities and honor the agreements it willingly signed, some may say, at its finest hour. Lets bridge the gap by encouraging the two leaders to meet and do what is right, for history and posterity.

It is incumbent upon you, to educate the rest of your compatriots that the verdict is final and binding. I am sure there are some elements within Ethiopia who are still praying for the demise of the current regime and hopefully the unraveling of the nation. But that will only elongate the pain and suffering of the people.

3. The two governments should agree to end all sorts of hostilities and endeavor to resume trade as part of the normalization process.

I have no problem with this point. But you are putting the cart before the horse. Yes, hostilities have to end and the process of normalization should start, as soon as possible. But your number two point above is not conductive to such an atmosphere.

4. The two governments should exchange views on the sea outlet for Ethiopia and commercial and industrial commodities for Eritrea.

5. The two governments should consider a long-term plan of confederation between the two countries as part of regional integration. These could involve other Horn of Africa nations as well.

Your number 4 and 5 points are closely tied and the response from the overwhelming majority of Eritreans would be "over our dead bodies". Personally, I found your number four point very telling. It was and has always been about the ports and the outlet to the sea.

As for your call for confederation between the two and the rest of the countries in the area, it may not happen in our lifetime.Your generation and mine have failed the two brotherly people. Lets hope our children will do a better job and if they decide to live together as citizens of one nation, more power to them.

In the immortal words of Martin Luther King, Jr. I also...

......Have a dream that the your children and my children will live in peace and harmony and will call each other brother and sister, in the true sense of the word.

Badme or no Badme, the two people are destined to live together. The hopes and aspiration of the two people will not be served by, war mongering and sloganeering. At the end of the day, when all is said and done, there is no alternative to peace. There were no winners in the last war and there will be none, this time around.

We should not let history repeat itself.

As for those, who are still sawing the seeds of hate, those who are calling for war and more war.

Well! here is an amharic proverb that says it all...

"enQuan zenbobish, drom Teza nesh"