Ethiopia - Opening the Pandora Box – Critique on Shaabia and Woyane remnants

I happen to observe that many people remain: (1) Either shockingly unaware of the political figures they seem to support; (2) or have scanty information, with partial pictures on the paradoxical and diversified issues of contemporary Ethiopia; (3) with less clarity about who is who in the contemporary Ethiopian political arena. Therefore, I find it quite essential for readers to digest the following 3 critical points that I have tried to summarize below so that our outlook about Ethiopian circumstantial issues is within context.

(1) EGYPT:

“Abay sim new inji min sertwal lageru
Wesdo kelegese ke wohaw kaferu!”

Since time immemorial, Egypt depends purely on the rich and fertile soils carried away by ABAY (Blue Nile) from the Ethiopian Highlands. It provides more than 86% of the Nile's water supply to Egypt once after converging with the longer but viewed from hydrological point of view feeble White Nile at Khartoum. Egypt has been working hard on its standing strategy and plan of keeping Ethiopia in turmoil since the British Anglo-Egyptian-Sudan colonial in order to buy time for itself to widely utilize the Nile water for its irrigation systems in peace. To Egypt creating unrest and havoc within Ethiopia has one critical policy. Keeping Ethiopians not to pay attention to the Blue Nile; not to allow them to have peace of mind to divert the water from its sources into Tigrai, Wollo, Shoa or otherwise, where famine and drought has been chronic and acute for decades. So in the past, Egypt has not hesitated to threaten the use of force to keep its overwhelming share of the Nile’s waters. Specially designated squads from among its armed forces are trained in jungle warfare, clearly intended for action in countries far to the south, where the Blue or the White Nile originates.

For instance, if Ethiopia decided to build a dam on one of its river branches that flow into Abay (Blue Nile), then that would mean war with Egypt immediately. There is no other choice for Egypt. An attempt by any of the nine countries in the Nile basin to use water in a way that would reduce the flow into Egypt could precipitate war. It means that the 'Jungle Squad' is readily waiting to invade Ethiopia at any moment in time if and when Ethiopia attempts to reduce the volume of the source water flowing into Abay itself inside Ethiopia. And inside Egypt itself, Lake Nasser, the giant reservoir on the Nile created by the Aswan High Dam is one of the most highly secured water bodies on the planet; stretching more than 300 miles to Aswan Dam. As Sudan has not the same sophisticated technical capability as Egypt to utilize the water, it releases almost all of (86-90%) the water from the Blue & White Nile directly to Egypt. For decades since Gamal Abd el-Nasser, Egypt fully supported both financially, materially, morally, politically and by providing offices and mass-media services in Cairo in the formation of most opposition parties including ELF, EPLF, and ONLF; and other Ethiopia-allergists that can keep the country in political turmoil. So Egypt had no real worry about Ethiopia when it was under the Marxist Mengistu Haile Mariam regime that had little chance of getting Western Nations financial aid to build dams or little support world wide.

The story is now different, which makes the more hawkish trend in Egypt to opt and push for a military solution at the first prospect of Ethiopia building dams on the Blue Nile. Currently, the issue concerning the equitable sharing and utilization of the Nile water is undermined by Egypt based on past agreements including the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian agreement, the 1929 and 1959 Nile Water agreements signed between Egypt and the Sudan. In these agreements, both countries agreed to allocate the net yield of 74 BCM at the Aswan Dam between themselves on the basis of 55.5 BCM for Egypt and 18.5 for the Sudan as a junior beneficiary.

To our dismay Ethiopia was excluded from these negotiations all together and none of the total available water was made available to Ethiopia. At this point in time, the severity of this matter can be pin-pointed by the 4-key factors indicated below:

• As the key source of the Blue Nile and a crucial contributor of 86% of the water and the rich soil which it carries with it Ethiopia remains in a disadvantaged position; thus far not utilizing any amount of it for its own internal use. The question here is: Why should Ethiopia that provides 86% of the Blue Nile water is deprived of its fair share?
• In fact, due to the series of devastating droughts that occurred so far, there is a serious need inside Ethiopia to achieve food security, by irrigating the Ethiopian highlands and by preventing millions of tons of topsoil being carried-off by heavy rains every year.
• Besides, Ethiopia has every right to develop its natural resources. In the past Ethiopia argued bitterly with Egypt for building the Aswan dam without even consulting Ethiopia in the first place; and for misappropriation of the lion’s share of the Blue Nile resources. This was clearly stated in an Ethiopian policy paper in 1997 saying: “the stark inequality prevailing in the Nile basin cannot remain.” The one thing holding back Ethiopia from developing irrigated agriculture on a large scale is the threat of military action, which Egypt would regard as an act of self-defense. In 1989, when Ethiopia brought in Israeli water engineers to survey its water resources, it received a stern warning from Cairo.
• Throughout history, Ethiopia’s claim to use the Blue Nile water arising in its territory has created global precedents. For instance, (1) Kenya’s former Minister of Trade Tom Emboya was shot instantly to death a couple of days after he voiced his vision in public stating the following: “If the one time nomadic Arab states can accrue petrol dollar wealth out of their God given oil resources; the Nile source countries should also start to accrue water exchange for dollar to nations that make use of it freely so far. (2) During the dispute over water that sprang up between the USA and Mexico at the end of the 19th century, U.S. Attorney General Judson Harmon stated that his country had absolute sovereignty over that part of the Rio Grande River that flowed within its territory and had no obligation to share it. (3) More recently, Turkey has used a variation of the so-called Harmon Doctrine to justify damming the Euphrates River to the detriment of its downstream neighbors including Syria and Iraq. The former Turkish president, Suleiman Demirel, said those countries had no more right to claim Turkey’s water than Turkey had to claim their oil.

So it is high time that we become seriously concerned and aware of the consequences of the utility modes of the Blue Nile; by quickly trying to do something about it. Giving it a serious note, and looking at it from the demographic point of view, the drastically growing population size in Ethiopia, the constantly ongoing famine and drought situations beg for optional agricultural solutions in the near future; than to dwell on age old hand hoe and ox-plough methods. Nor can Ethiopia afford to continue with the currently existing ecological degradation. Indeed and very truly indeed, Ethiopia can’t afford to let its population starve for fear of indulging into conflicts with other riparian states like Egypt.

(2) SHAABIA and WOYANE:

Shaabia, Woyane, and their sympathizers constantly keep deep-seated grudges and strong resentment in their heart for what they claim as having lost their autonomy (since the Axumite rule till the death of Emperor Yohannes the 4th). To them, for over 100 years the Amhara state rulers kept Tigrians as junior subjects and subjugated to constant Amhara oppression. According to Woyane: “One of the main reasons for the Woyane uprising was the long standing resentment of Menelik's `divide and rule' policy. Its first form was a desire to unite the ancient province which was divided by the frontiers between Eritrea and Ethiopia… The resentment that was latent in Tigrai for nearly a century was exacerbated by the bitter ethnic based discrimination that Haile Selassie pursued after the Woyane uprising… The political and democratic rights of the people of Tigrai were curtailed, economically exploited, socially dehumanized, their language and culture suppressed. Since the suppressive environment never allowed open political activities, many Tigraians and especially the educated radicals who later on created the TPLF, were opting for an armed struggle on the basis of modern guerrilla warfare. The Eritrean armed struggle, which was older by then, had a direct influence in this respect.”

As a result guided, by Issaass Afeworki and Shaabia, Woyane and other successive ethnic groups waged war against the successive regimes after Menelik and even continued their constant agitation to dismantle the Amhara state by urging people of various nationalities to resort to armed struggle in order to attain their political rights and to determine their destiny through self-determination from the yoke of the century old “Amhara state”; and bring it to an end.

When one takes a look at the deep-seated resentment and sense of vengeance by Shaabia and Woyane to the extent of conspiring to keep the Ethiopia they know as the Amhara state, one finds how their sinister intellectuals awkwardly interpreted history out of context; simply to make it suit their contemporary vested end goals – grabbing power by all means.

A case in point is what a die-hard Woyane, by the name Solomon Inquai, writes stating that: “Menelik was negotiating territorial concessions with Italy, while Raesi Alula and Yohannes were rejecting categorically suggestions by Britain to give Italy a foothold in the maritime district" (Inquai, 1983/84:10). To one’s dismay the Shaabia and Woyane historians try to reflect history as it suits their purpose by further stating that “While Yohannes was confronted by the Italians in the north, Menelik of Shoa appealed to king Umberto (of Italy), urging him to wage war on Massawa against Yohannes. Furthermore they go on telling lame-excusing story for their grudges stating that: as a person, “Menelik was Tigrai-phobic from early days when he came to power just like all other Shoan feudal lords”. Once again, in the Woyane Solomon Inquai’s own words, it is stated that: “Menelik, following his accession to the throne, mounted a joint attack against Tigrai with the Italians. The Italians marched from their colony in Eritrea and Menelik from Wollo to try to defeat Mengesha, the emperor designate, and Alula, the great general. At that moment Menelik requested Italy to assist him by stationing an Italian officer at Adua to oversee Tigray and to discourage future subordination" (Inquai, 1983/84: 10).

Furthermore, according to Shaabia and Woyane disciples: “Menelik's idea to divide and weaken the North was accomplished by giving half of Tigrai proper (Eritrea) to be colonized by Italy… and to punish Tigrai, Menelik naively, entered into the grip of the colonial powers of the time…
After the spectacular victory of the Ethiopians over the Italian modern army at the Battle of Adua, Menelik could have crossed the Mereb River that latter became the boarder line dividing Eritrea from Ethiopia, and chased the defeated Italian Army at least up to the highlands facing Asmara, if not pushing them into the Red Sea. .. Ultimately the fact remains that the Tigrinya speaking people were parceled for two masters: Mussolini across Mereb and Menelik south of it. This was the beginning of the fault between the traditionally homogeneous Tigraians, who otherwise if united would be stronger to claim power. Hence, the weakening and onslaught of Tigraians by the Showan Amhara ruling class began at this historical juncture… The defeat of the Italians at Adua gave Menelik immense power over his potential rivals, particularly the Tigraian nobility under Mengesha Yohannes and Alula Aba Nega. Menelik had the opportunity to divide and weaken Tigrai. His army was let lose to devastate as much as the colonial army did… Menelik's policy was based on the assumption that, “Tigrai is an enemy that should not be underestimated''.

Consequently, according to Woyane: “Many Tigraian scholars agree that Menelik did not consider the people of Tigrai as part of his own people.... As a result, some Tigraian nationalists (as was manifested in TPLF) were also debating whether to accept that Tigrai is a constituent of Ethiopia… To Shaabia and Woyane, even Emperor Haile Selassie, who ruled the country for over four decades until he was over thrown by the Derg, on 12 September 1974, pursued Menelik's dubious policies towards the Tigraians. He too saw Tigraians as dangerous contenders to his power… simply to perpetuate the Showan-Amhara state (officially the Ethiopian state)” So to the Haile Selassie imposed the Amharic language as a compulsory requirement in all fields of education, government workings and even the church.

As a result, today, according to the Woyane inner circle, if Shaabia and Woyane decided to divide and rule Ethiopia in their liking; and if they keep Ethiopia without access to the sea, it is simply to revenge what Menelik and his successor regimes including the Derg did unto the peoples of Tigray and Eritrea; for which reason they opted to check the Amhara and keep them in a junior position pertaining to psycho-social, political and economic stances.

But as far as I see, to the contrary, the reality in the Amhara region, and for that matter in Tigray itself, speaks for itself. The Amhara in Gondar, Wollo, Gojjam, or in Shoa and others living in parts of rural Tigray are actually living in abject poverty; no different from the way they lived for several decades in the past. In deed people living in the Amhara region as a whole (Gondar, Gojjam, Wollo and Shewa) survive in a bare minimum economy and suffer from diseases as they do not have proper access to basic infrastructures as: schools, clinics and either tarmac or well-paved roads into the rural communities. The daily routine for them is full of hazardous hardships as most of them do not even have enough parcels of arable land to plough; in most cases their homesteads are located within hills shoved in the remote rugged mountains.

So what is this out of context sell out description about what Shaabia and Woyane try to ascribe? No matter how long, the truth will come out to the surface. If people are consistently having one national working language to speak, read and write, ironically it was Emperor Yohannes 4th who officially introduced and established Amharic as the national lingua franca of Ethiopia by taking the imperial podium where he declared national issues in Amharic; just as the Woyane leader, Meles Zenawi, is doing similar duties today so eloquently in Amharic. Indeed, for that matter, he is more Amhara by sentiment and linguistic skill than the Amhara he speaks of as dominant. And if past regimes were dictatorial and oppressive by character, this has nothing to do with the Amhara as the government seats were filled by people of diversified ethnic back-ground with Tigrians taking the majority sits be it in schools or public service offices as technocrats. So the injustice has to do with the regime’s system and not as the Shaabia and Woyane cohorts try to generalize as the thing of the Shewa Amhara dominancy. This is lopsided story to tell. I wonder is it Menz, Mollale, Sela Dengay, Bulga, Menjar that is far privileged by its mere dominance of the other tribes; or is it true that these people actually are suffering from the backward situation they are facing thus far? I leave the judgment for those of you who know the terrains and mountainous areas of Ethiopia before joining hand with these ill-taught and ill-directed Shaabia and Woyane remnants.

(3) GINBOT-7:

Dr. Birhanu Nega, Andargachew Tsige and Yakob W. Mariam were persons who were the one time EPRP members; who at later dates, when Woyane was marching to take-up Addis Ababa from the Derg flew from the West and willingly resorted to joining the Woyane group and formed what is then known as the: "AFRICA GROUP" in Addis Ababa in the early 1990s; where they amassed huge sum of funds from the Woyane treasury seeking investment on a fertilizer company and other similar business ventures.

As days go by, when their aspiration to go along and work with the Woyane government did not work out as they made their initial day dreams while in bondage with the Woyane. At that critical moment, they ended up facing frictions and factions. Mind you, one was already appointed Mayor of Addis Ababa City while the other was aspiring to grab high positions including the Mayor position. Once outside Ethiopia, Andargachew Tsige and Abrham Yayeh made several secretive trips to Asmara, Eritrea and held meetings with Issass Afeworki as a result of which they returned to Europe and America to further loosen hard-feelings from among Ethiopians towards Eritrea and urged Ethiopians in Diaspora to accept Afeworki and Eritrea as our liberators from Woyane. They preached here and there that joining hands with Shaabia is the way forward for the various nationalities who aspire to build self-determination up to secession. Ultimately these nationalities can build a new nation in place of the existing regime. So they fully conspired to implement Shaabia’s standing principle of secession of nationalities for their future self-determination.

They even marched to the extent of accepting to intentionally call the region as: Horn Africa – instead of Ethiopia – Simply following in the foot-spore of Shaabia and Woyane. Initially out of contempt and down-looking at Ethiopia as an Amhara Kingdom (or Abyssinia) this type of name calling (miscall) was deliberately coined by Afeworki and Co. and eventually funneled and propagated by the Woyane and Co; simply to avoid naming the region by its rightful name as: Ethiopia.

Now, that Ginbot-7 is working day in and day out with OLF, ONLF and similar nationalities promising that they can declare their self-determination; we are simply funneling guys who don’t care for Ethiopia’s mere sovereignty but their sheer aspiration and hunger for power. That is exactly why Elias Kifle's ER is infested by huge crowds of drum-biting, hot-tempered, motional and emotional but not rational OLF, ONLF, Siltee separatist sympathizers and their diehards.